Jane’s Defence Weekly projected that until 2012, Southeast Asia will experience an average of 8 to 9 percent defense-spending growth annually.  

According to the Military Balance 2010, commissioning the process of the 2 Malaysian Scorpene is due in 2010, while Singapore just increased its defense budget by approximately 7 percent in their 2008 to 2009 financial year.  

The trend continues to mid-sized countries such as Vietnam, which just secured its procurement on 12 Sukhoi jet fighters from Russia.  

Undoubtedly, Indonesia needs to be more assertive in the defense sphere.  

The strategic environment is clearly vibrant and many still perceive Indonesia as a significant actor to maintain  balance in the region.  

Hence, it is essential to define and convey Indonesia’s terms and conditions for any defense strategic partnership offer.  

Concomitantly, the defense strategic partnership should be in line with the current national policy, such as defense industry revitalization.  

Most importantly, the defense strategic partnership should serve the military in defending Indonesia.

Cobra Gold 10 builds Asia-centered relationships
Marking the 177th year of U.S.-Thai relations, the U.S. Army joins five partner countries for the 29th annual Cobra Gold exercise—Cobra Gold 10.

The joint exercise focuses on maintaining and improving military-to-military relationships among the U.S., Thailand, Singapore, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Indonesia.

Thailand is one of our nation’s closest friends and partners in Asia. March 2009 marked the 176th anniversary of the U.S. Thailand Treaty of Amity and Commerce that makes Thailand our oldest treaty ally in Asia. While providing unique and dynamic training opportunities for participating military partners, Cobra Gold also promotes relationship-building between militaries and local communities.

Cobra Gold 10 builds on progress made during previous exercises in terms of participating nations’ ability to conduct joint/multinational operations, and improves multinational interoperability and capacity. The exercise is rooted in partnerships and recognizes the need for multinational solutions to common challenges ranging from transnational violent extremism to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Department of Defense on Cobra Gold, Jan 13

Cobra Gold, the largest multinational military exercise in the world, begins its 29th year of joint training and cooperation among six countries in the Asia-Pacific theater in Thailand on Feb.1.

Cobra Gold 2010 marks the first time South Korea will participate in the exercise.  

“Thailand is one of our closest friends and partners in Asia, as well as being our oldest ally in Asia,” said Lt. Gen. Benjamin R. Mixon, commander, U.S. Army Pacific. “The Cobra Gold exercise is the largest multilateral joint military exercise in the world.”  

Sponsored by U.S. Pacific Command and the Royal Thai Supreme Command, the three-week exercise includes a command-post exercise, a series of medical and engineering civic-action projects and joint and combined field training. The exercise continues to serve as a venue to build interoperability between the United States and its Asia-Pacific regional partners.  

The command-post exercise focuses on training a Thai, U.S., Singaporean, Indonesian, and South Korean coalition task force. The exercise also includes Japan participating within a United Nations Force staff. A team composed of representatives from Brunei, Chile, China, Germany, Laos, Mongolia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Vietnam will observe the command-post exercise at the invitation of the Thai government.  

Thailand backs Korean role in Cobra Gold, Bangkok Post, Jan 12

Korea is the sixth country to take part in Cobra Gold, launched in 1982, joining Thailand, the US, Japan, Indonesia and Singapore. Under a Thai-US agreement, up to 10 countries could become involved in the exercises.

An army source said the US took an active role in backing Korea's participation after reports of joint military cooperation between North Korea and Burma.

It could be the first step for South Korea to have a more active role in Southeast Asia, the source said.

More than 11,600 soldiers, mostly from the US with 6,217 troops, will gather in provinces such as Rayong, Phetchaburi and Lop Buri from Feb 1 to 11.

Meanwhile, the US is also planning joint exercises with Cambodia, but Thai military officials are unconcerned even though Thailand has been at odds with its neighbour on overlapping boundaries.

Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said Wednesday this could provide opportunities to revitalize the domestic defense industries, one of the government’s 15 priority programs.

“We hope this year to begin the revival of the Indonesian defense industries, which suffered from the 1998 monetary crisis,” Purnomo said.

He was speaking at the hand over of 33 armored personnel carriers (APCs) at the factory of the state-owned arms maker, PT Pindad, in Bandung.

The Army will get 20 of the APCs, while the other 13 will go to Indonesia’s peace keeping forces serving under the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

The Wednesday hand over was the third in a purchase of 154 APCs (comprising 150 6x6 APCs and four 4x4 reconnaissance APCs) worth a total Rp 1.127 trillion. The order contract is dated June 12, 2008.

In 2008 and 2009, Pindad completed 60 of the vehicles from the order. The remaining 61 will be completed this year.

Purnomo said that as the buyer the ministry could understand all weaknesses of locally made weapons systems, which included inefficiency, non-standard quality, and a lack of after-sales service and spare parts.

“These obstacles cannot justify the dependence on imported weapons systems,” he said.

“We should increase the locally made components of the locally made weapon systems.”

Purnomo said there was a large budget for new weaponry, which could help revive national strategic industries.

“The 2010 state budget can only provide Rp 6.4 trillion for weapons procurement out of a budget of Rp 42 trillion for the defense ministry,” he said.

“However, over the next five years the budget will be increased by up to Rp 20 trillion per year ... reaching an estimated Rp 63 trillion by 2015.”

“If this is not enough to revitalize our strategic industries, at least it will form a base.”

Obama to Indonesia, Catharin Dalpino-Macarthur Foundation, Feb 1

As with all announcements of Presidential trips, this one unleashes speculation on the administration’s priorities in the region and future trips in Obama’s 2010 Asia itinerary. Presidential scheduling is an intensely political process and one that can spark bureaucratic rivalry as well.  In November Obama will travel to Yokohama for the APEC Leaders Meeting, and there are strong expectations that he will include Beijing and Seoul in the trip as well.  The hope that Obama will travel to India this year, on the heels of Prime Minister Singh’s state visit last November, is palpable in Washington’s South Asian affairs community, but no dates have been announced as yet

Southeast Asia specialists and policymakers are left with a greater number of unanswered questions.  Obama’s trip to Indonesia will mark his second visit to a Southeast Asian maritime state that has significant security relations with the United States but is not a treaty ally (the first being Singapore for the APEC meeting last November).  Are Thailand and the Philippines, Washington’s two treaty allies in the region, still central to US security in Southeast Asia?  Is it prudent to visit the Philippines in an election year or Thailand while the political crisis continues, albeit at a calmer level than at any time since 2006?  What of Vietnam’s invitation to Obama to visit Hanoi this year for the second round of the US-ASEAN Summit?  Southeast Asia watchers will analyze the venue for that meeting to determine if the administration is committed to a permanent US-ASEAN summit process or will simply rely on convenience, piggybacking meetings on the backs of larger regional summits where possible. 

With one puzzle piece in place, jockeying for the others will only intensify. 

In late December 2009, reports surfaced that Myanmar (formerly Burma) had signed a EUR 400 million (about $571 million) deal with Russia’s Rosoboronexport for 20 MiG-29D fighters. Some sources add a deal for more Mi-35 attack helicopters, and place the entire package at EUR 450 million. The Russian bid reportedly beat a Chinese offer to supply 4+ generation J-10/ FC-20 fighters, or the cheaper   JF-17/ FC-1 Thunder   lightweight fighter. Implicitly, it also edged out neighboring Malaysia, who is   preparing to sell   its MiG-29N fleet at a discounted price. This is good news for RAC-MiG, whose financial troubles and low order volume led to   a shotgun merger with   Russia’s state-owned United Aircraft Corporation,   government bailouts , and doubts about the long-term future of its technologies.

Secretary Clinton marks ASEAN Regional Forum as part of Security effort, Jan 12 th in Hawaii

U.S. Air Force Airmen recently participated in Singapore Airshow 2010, Asia's largest air show and one of the top three aerospace and defense exhibitions in the world.

Aircraft from the United States participated in both static displays and aerial demonstrations at Singapore Airshow 2010 to exhibit a snapshot of the diverse inventory of U.S. military aircraft and equipment. U.S. Pacific Command's participation in the six-day air show directly supports U.S. engagement goals and furthered U.S. relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

U.S. Air Force Airmen will once again work alongside the Singapore Air Force during the second iteration of exercise Commando Sling 10, which takes place at Paya Lebar Air Base, Singapore, scheduled to begin Feb. 22...  

The iteration will end March 12 and involve forces from the U.S. Air Force and the Republic of Singapore Air Force. Commando Sling 10 consists of a series of three deployments running from December 2009 through July 2010.

Eliminating ongoing grievances, expanding space for Malay cultural identity, improving quality of education and increasing employment, increasing local ownership and engaging community-based and civil society organisations as well as increasing diplomatic support, are key elements to end the violence and bring about the much needed national reconciliation in Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala.

Prepared by the Foreign Ministry in early January and given the green light by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, these strategies would serve as common guidelines for the government and concerned agencies, including security forces working there. Without tangible and continued improvement, the Foreign Ministry realised, the country's image would be forever held hostage by the conflict in the South, which in turn would be highlighted continuously in international forums, especially in the Organisation of Islamic Conference. Positive perception among the global Muslim community is of utmost importance and can only be achieved through concrete improvements--seeing is believing.

The rule of law, administration of justice and protecting citizen's rights are major components that the government has been citing for all relevant policies to promote justice and safety of the people living in the South. Abhisit and Foreign Minister   Kasit Piromya  are under the world's microscope partly because of their own enthusiasm and outward looking--not to mention the effort and budgets that have been invested in the troubled areas.

One year has elapsed and the government has not fulfilled its pledge completely to take up grievances by settling pending cases, such as the killing of Muslim lawyer Somchai Neerapaichit, and the death of Imam Yapa Kaseng under the military's detention, among others. While some progress has been made, it is still small and slow. The prime minister has to take the bull by the horns to ensure that these investigations wrap up and justice is done soon.

Obviously, Abhisit's power has its limits when it comes to implementation on the ground level, especially some of the judicial process, which can have an opposite effect in the South. In fact, it has become a huge impediment to end mutual suspicion and reduce violence. Quite frequently, the long and tedious judicial process has further generated deep resentment among families and friends of jailed suspected insurgents.

Army stands by GT200, Bangkok Post, Feb 19

Army chief Anupong Paojinda says he is willing to shoulder responsibility if any irregularities are found in the purchase of the GT200 explosive scanner.

‘‘ I’ll take responsibility, whether or not the device is 100% effective.”

Gen Anupong told a news conference yesterday called to clarify the army's acquisition of the device after field tests showed the GT200 was unreliable.

"If there are irregularities in the procurement scheme, I'm here to face the consequences."

The army chief insisted the purchase of the device was above board and it had been bought because the troops who operated it believed in its effectiveness.

The three-hour news conference was attended by security officers from explosive ordnance disposal units and procurement departments who all confirmed the GT200 worked.

"They said the device worked effectively in over 300 operations," Gen Anupong said.

Gen Anupong said he did not order a ban on the use of the GT200 because there was no alternative equipment.

"It is not that I am rejecting the test results or have a conflict with the prime minister. Do not assume that.

"We are here to say why the device has been procured and is in use," he said.

Following the tests on Sunday by the Science and Technology Ministry, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva ordered that no more GT200s be bought and suggested a review of the device.

The army has 757 GT200 detectors. Of these, 524 are used in the South. Each costs about 900,000 baht.

Korn upset with Thailand’s ranking in terrorism index, The Nation, Feb 18

Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij on Wednesday expressed concerns over Thailand's ranking in Maplecroft's Terrorism Risk Index (TRI), where the country slipped into the extreme risk category for the first time.

 While Iraq is ranked as the country most at risk from terrorist attacks for the second year running, ranked 11th last year Thailand has now dropped two places in the ranking and into the extreme risk category. Terrorism incidents in Thailand's restive Muslim south - such as the October 2009 bomb attacks in Sungai Kolok - largely account for the country's rating.

 Korn said he was upset with the ranking, as the country has shown development in many areas in the past year. However, terrorism is still holding the country down.

 He urged all Thais to focus on building peace. On Tuesday, the ministry joined 12 financial institutions to launch a commemorative pink wrist band campaign, to remind all Thais how happy they were on the previous birthday on His Majesty the King.

 "We should focus more on our own problems and convey the message to the outside world how peaceful we are and how much we try to improve the situation. The problems would be solved only with Thais' supports," he said.

''There is a decision in principle... We have to see if it comes to fruition,'' an industry source told AFP.

''It appears that the Russians pushed for it in the context of a broader strategic agreement.''

The contract will go to Rosatom, which state-owned Vietnam Electricity (EVN) has recommended conduct a feasibility study of the nuclear project's first phase, Japanese newspaper The Nikkei said in a Tuesday report, citing multiple sources.

A source at Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed The Nikkei report for AFP but a Russian embassy official said there was no official comment.

The first phase would involve 2,000 Megawatts, the sources said.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is expected to approve the proposal soon, The Nikkei added.

During a visit to Moscow in December, EVN and Rosatom signed a memorandum of cooperation.

At the time, Dung said without elaborating that Vietnam had officially invited Russia ''to cooperate in the building of the first atomic energy plant in Vietnam''.

That memorandum came alongside Hanoi's agreement to buy Russian-made submarines and aircraft, in a deal analysts said aimed to bolster Vietnam's claims against China over potentially resource-rich islands in the South China Sea.

China, France and to a lesser extent South Korea and the United States had also shown interest in Vietnam's nuclear project.

In November Vietnam's communist-dominated parliament approved building the country's first nuclear power stations. Initial government plans call for four reactors, with a total capacity of 4,000 Megawatts, at least one of which should be operational from 2020.

Russia, Vietnam sign fighter jet deal, Channel News Asia, February 11

Russia will supply Vietnam with 12 SU-30MK2 fighter jets and aviation equipment worth a total of about one billion dollars, a military-diplomatic source told the Interfax news agency on Wednesday.

"Last week, a contract was signed to supply Vietnam with 12 more SU-30MK2 fighter planes. The planes will be supplied in 2011 and 2012," the source was quoted as saying.

"The contract also calls for the supply of various aviation arms, equipment and parts," the source said, putting the overall value of the deal at one billion dollars (727 million euros).

Vietnam is a major customer of Russia's Sukhoi fighter jets. It previously signed a contract in early 2009 to buy eight SU-30MK2 planes, the source said.

The report came a day after industry sources in Vietnam said that Hanoi had decided to award Russia's state atomic energy firm a coveted contract to build the southeast Asian country's first nuclear power plant.

Vietnam signed a defence agreement with Russia in December during a visit by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung to Moscow. Interfax reported at the time that Hanoi had agreed to buy six diesel-electric submarines for two billion dollars.

Russian Arms deal aims to modernize Vietnam Army:PM, ThanhNien, Jan 9th

“It is a normal move,” Dung said at a press briefing in Hanoi Friday. Vietnam did not have the opportunity to buy modern submarines and aircraft until now, when the country has become more economically capable, he said.

“It’s not something unexpected and not an arms race,” he stressed.

The arms deal between was signed during Dung’s visit to Russia last month.

According to the   Interfax   news agency, Vietnam has agreed to buy six Russian-made submarines for US$2 billion. The subs would be built for the Vietnamese navy at a rate of one per year,   Interfax   reported, citing an unnamed defense industry source.

Vietnam always has two important missions, to develop and defend the nation, Dung said.

The country will still maintain its peaceful policies, but at the same time it needs to be strong enough to defend its independence, he said, noting that many countries in the region have already acquired submarines to protect their waters.

END MEMO

If you have questions regarding the Council's regular updates and e-mail distribution, please send an email to Anthony Nelson at anelson@usasean.org.