New Bank of Thailand governor; Export Growth; Emergency Decree extended;

July 9th, 2010

IN THIS UPDATE:
  • Customs
  • Defense & Security
  • Financial Services
  • Food & Agriculture
  • ICT
  • Politics
  • Other

Looking Ahead...

  • Briefing with Siriporn Nurugusa, Director of the New York Branch of the Thailand Board of Investment, at the Council offices in D.C. on Monday, July 12 th at 3PM. Call-in available.
  • Conference Call with Ambassador Eric John on Tuesday, July 12th at 8:30 PM DC Time, 7:30 AM Wednesday the 13th Bangkok Time.
  • 2010 Business Mission to Thailand, July 29th and 30th.
  • For more information about these events, contact Anthony Nelson at anelson@usasean.org

Dear Members,

We have several interesting Thailand events coming up.

  • Briefing with Siriporn Nurugusa, Director of the New York Branch of the Thailand Board of Investment, at the Council offices in D.C. on Monday, July 12th at 3PM. Call-in available.
  • Conference Call with Ambassador Eric John on Tuesday, July 12th at 8:30 PM DC Time, 7:30 AM Wednesday the 13th Bangkok Time.
  • 2010 Business Mission to Thailand, July 29th and 30th.

To join any of these events, please reply to this e-mail.

Customs

Thailand: Exports boom despite tourism collapse, Bloomberg, July 8

Here's a conundrum: While Thailand's famous tourist industry is flat on its back, the economy is headed for 6 percent growth this year, according to analysts at Forecast in Singapore. The stock market is up 11 percent, an achievement when most of the world's bourses are sharply down. And the baht, Thailand's currency, has crept up almost 3 percent since the start of the year.

You wouldn't suspect such resilience if you strolled through downtown Bangkok. There the sprawling CentralWorld shopping center lies partially in ruins, torched by antigovernment protesters on May 19. A memorial of life-size plaster figures of people holding hands stands close by, with greetings left by would-be shoppers. "I ♥ CW," writes one. "Please come back soon, hopefully with a skating rink again."

The protests left at least 89 people dead. There's been "a huge decline in forward bookings," says William E. Heinecke, chief executive officer of Minor International, a Bangkok-based company that operates 16 Thai hotels. Minor shut its Four Seasons hotel in Bangkok for more than a month because of the protests, and occupancy rates at the reopened facility are now between 20 percent and 30 percent. Priscilla Andre, CEO of Pavilions Resorts, rents out 25 luxury villas on the island resort of Phuket. About half of her villas are occupied, she says, compared with about 70 percent a year ago. Radhika Rao, an economist at Forecast in Singapore, figures the dropoff of tourism will shave as much as a full point off Thailand's growth, and travel executives fear the protests could resume at election time early in 2011. The Thai government, meanwhile, says tourist arrivals could still edge out last year's number.

Yet even with the industry in shambles, Rao expects the economy to expand at a healthy clip in 2010. Although tourism is the most visible prop to the Thai economy, it makes up only 6 percent of gross domestic product. Exports of farm products and manufactured goods comprise two-thirds of GDP. The advantages for Thai exporters are many, says Peter John van Haren, whose company, Wiik & Hoeglund, ships drainage pipes from Thailand to customers around the region. "All the infrastructure is built up," says Van Haren, "the shipping companies, the ports, customs."

U.S. and Japanese automakers in particular are ramping up operations in Thailand, which has positioned itself as a manufacturing hub for Southeast Asia. On June 24, Ford Motor ( F) announced a $450 million plan to produce its Focus car in Rayong province 165 miles south of Bangkok. On June 30, Nissan said it will assemble its compact, the March, in Thailand. Toyota Motor ( TM) and General Motors will probably expand Thai production as well. "We remain optimistic," says Ray G. Young, GM's president of international operations. "Our business and expansion plans will continue in Thailand without delay."

Defense & Security

Thailand’s forgotten war simmers, AsiaOne, July 9

 Clashes on the streets of Bangkok earlier this year between anti-government protesters and security forces have diverted attention from the shadowy Malay Muslim insurgency in the southernmost provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat, where some 4,100 people have died since January 2004. 

By some measures, the cell-based insurgents appeared to ramp up their guerrilla tactics coincident with the unrest in the national capital. Three bombings in Yala town in May and early June left four people dead and about 100 injured. On July 2 and 3, two separate bombings killed seven security personnel and one other person, prompting Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to hold an urgent meeting with security agencies overseeing the restive region. 

According to Deep South Watch, a Pattani-based think-tank that monitors and analyzes the violence, there were more incidents in June than any other month since August 2007. While this apparent spike in violence has aroused some media attention, the statistics are somewhat misleading. 

A closer examination shows that 44 incidents in June were small-scale disturbances, such as tire burnings and scattering spikes on roads, rather than bombings. Nor has the rise in incidents resulted in a jump in the number of deaths and injuries; conflict-related casualties have fluctuated month-to-month, but their numbers have remained relatively consistent since 2009. And the levels continue to be dramatically lower than in 2007, the most violent year of the conflict. 

Some analysts, including political scientist Srisompob Jitpiromsiri from Prince of Songkla University's Pattani campus, attribute the recent uptick in violence to insurgent efforts to recapture Bangkok's attention and force the government into some sort of settlement. 

"They are trying to increasingly pressure the government," said Jitpiromsiri, who also serves as Deep South Watch's director. 

However, there is still widespread confusion concerning whether the insurgent networks operate under some kind of structured leadership. Three detainees interviewed by Asia Times Online at a military interrogation and reconciliation center in Pattani said that they were involved with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional - Coordinate (BRN-C) - the group many analysts believe is leading the insurgent charge. 

Security boosted for Abhisit, other key figures, Asia One, July 2

PERSONAL security has been boosted for the prime minister and key government figures following intelligence reports confirming an assassination plot, acting police chief Pol General Patheep Tanprasert said yesterday.

In addition to politicians, the other people targeted are high-ranking civilians and judicial officials, he added.

New members of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's security detail have been seen. There was a much larger number of both uniformed police officers and those in plain clothes providing security for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva at an event at the Thai-Japanese youth centre in Din Daeng yesterday.

Deputy secretary-general to the PM and acting government spokesman Panitarn Watthanayakorn now travels in a government-issued bulletproof SUV and is protected around the clock by a two-man security detail. Only Abhisit and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thuagsuban, another high-profile target, normally enjoy such security privileges.

In the wake of the rocket-propelled grenade attack on an Army fuel depot last Sunday, police are providing security around the clock at 68 locations, mostly fuel and energy infrastructures, in Bangkok.

Bangkok police chief Pol Lt-General Santhan Chayanont said two policemen stationed full-time at each of those locations were armed with assault rifles and given permission to "adopt ultimate measures" to "deter any threat"

 

Financial Services

Cabinet approves Prasarn as new BOT governor, The Nation, July 6

Earlier a Government House source told the Nation that it was most probably that Prasarn would win the top job.

Finance Minister   Korn Chatikavanij  said yesterday he would seek Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's endorsement of his choice before proposing the name of only one candidate to the Cabinet meeting.

Earlier, Abhisit denied a media report that the coalition partners would like to have a say in the appointment of the next governor. He said he had never heard such news.

The incoming governor would replace Tarisa Watanagase when she retires in September.

The other three candidates were Thirachai Bhuvanatnara-nubala, secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Bandid Nijthaworn, deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand, and Pisit Lee-atham, a former finance minister.

The four-way race for governor has been particularly fierce, given the strong credentials of all the candidates.

Prasarn was a central bank official before joining the Securities and Exchange Commission during its formative years.

After completing his term as the chief of the securities watchdog, he moved on to become the president of Kasikornbank. Now he also serves as chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association.

The four candidates went through a selection process conducted by a search committee chaired by Snoh Unakul, a former central bank governor. Late last month the candidates presented their vision on how they would run the monetary authority's organisation, oversee macroeconomic management, supervise financial institutions and develop the payment system.

After that Korn asked the four candidates to resubmit their presentations to crosscheck their views and evaluate their qualities.

The final selection reportedly boiled down to two candidates - Prasarn and Bandid, a bona fide insider well versed in macroeconomic and monetary policy. In the end, both Abhisit and Korn decided to go with Prasarn because he is an ideal candidate with a politically neutral stance, insight into the central bank's affairs, ideas for capital market development and also commercial banking experience.

Prasarn's successor at Kasikornbank, once he moves on to the central bank, is not known yet.

But the bank's board will meet at the end of this month to vote on the transition, with Banthoon Lamsam still at the helm as CEO.

Long term plan urged-investors want strong financial incentives, bangkok Post, July 7

-International investors have urged the government to develop a long-term strategy to ensure strong economic performance and income distribution.

Panelists speaking at the opening of a two-day Euromoney conference said Thailand had to improve education and have a clearer development strategy as it could no longer rely on cheap labour as a competitive advantage.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said that the government was trying to solve the country's fundamental problems as part of its reconciliation plan and was canvassing participation from various sectors.

The local corporate sector could benefit from import tax reduction under the Asean Free Trade Area agreement (Afta) and with closer ties with Asean's key trading partners.

The government would closely monitor global economic risk, although the overall economy was strong in the first half of the year.Tarisa Watanagase, the Bank of Thailand governor, said economic stability remained sound in terms of low corporate sector debt, the financial sector's strength and macroeconomic fundamentals.

The central bank is expected to increase interest rates this year, as the economy has improved significantly since the global recession. But she said the government should review tax structures to better cope with Thailand's ageing society.

"At the moment, only one-sixth of the labour force is in the tax base," said Dr Tarisa. "Tax revenue accounts for only 16% of gross domestic product, half that of developed countries."

But long-term economic development could regress due to the lack of a clear framework from the government, said Dean van Drasek, executive director of AK Partners and Arch Advisory, a financial services consultancy.

Some weaknesses in education were apparent, such as understaffed schools and low-paid teachers. Likewise, the number of engineering graduates is low. Meanwhile, it is evident that successful economies like South Korea have high numbers of engineering graduates, he said.

"Thailand may still enjoy 4% to 5% growth in the future. But unless there are some new programmes coming in, it will be falling behind the region," said Mr van Drasek.

Eric G. John, the US ambassador, said competition among Asean countries to attract foreign direct investment had intensified, but Thailand was a key manufacturing base for the US firms in the region.

The economy has remained sound despite the political strife that hit the tourism sector hard.

Some US-based hard disk drive firms are expected to expand capacity and increase employment this year.

Mr John said he saw an opportunity for US businesses to co-operate with the Thai government to help improve the labour skills of graduates, such as by managing IT training.

Thailand to consider rate increase, Bloomberg, July 5

Thailand will consider raising the benchmark interest rate, the central bank said, after the nation’s worst political violence in almost two decades ended without derailing the economic recovery.

“The downside risks to growth that we were concerned about in April and May have substantially reduced,” Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn, who is in charge of monetary stability and assists in the central bank’s rate decisions, said in an interview in Bangkok on July 2. “Policy rate normalization would be back on the agenda.”

Thailand has refrained from joining Taiwan, Malaysia, India and Australia in raising borrowing costs this year, choosing to keep its benchmark rate at 1.25 percent in June as local political unrest and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis threatened the economy. Bandid’s comments add to signs the central bank is preparing to increase rates for the first time since August 2008.

“There is a high possibility the central bank may raise the rate at its next meeting as the economic environment now points to that direction,” said Benjarong Suwankiri, an economist at TMB Bank Pcl in Bangkok. “They need to preempt inflationary pressure, which may accelerate soon. It may be too late to wait until later this year.”

Governor Tarisa Watanagase said last month policy makers must “be careful” about inflation. The next policy meeting is on July 14.

Export target increased to 18% growth, American Chronicle, July 3

he Commerce Ministry has revised up its official export growth target for the year to 18% from 14% earlier, saying global demand remains strong.

The value of the country's exports would reach US$178 billion this year, Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai said yesterday.

"Despite the Greek debt crisis which may affect certain European nations such as Spain, Hungary and Italy, the impact is unlikely to affect Thai exports to a significant degree," she said. "This is indicated by a significant increase of Thai shipments in recent months."

The minister expects exports to Europe will still expand by 10% this year.

Thailand last year enjoyed a trade surplus with the 27-nation EU of $6 billion, down from $9.05 billion a year earlier. Exports to the EU were worth $18.15 billion, down 22.4% from 2008, with imports down 15% to $12.15 billion.

Thailand's exports rose for the seventh straight month in May, by 42.1% from a year earlier to $16.56 billion. The surge came despite violence on the streets of Bangkok.

Imports climbed 55% to $14.34 billion, the sixth consecutive month of gains, as the economic recovery lifted demand for raw materials and consumer goods.

In the first five months of the year, Thai exports amounted to $75.02 billion, up 34.5% year-on-year, while imports were up 55% to $70.97 billion.

Food & Agriculture

Rice production in Thailand to be smallest in eight years, Bloomberg, June 29

Rice production in Thailand, the largest exporter of the grain, may drop to the lowest in eight years as drought and the spread of plant hoppers damage crops, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

The nation’s main rice crop, which accounts for about 75 percent of total output, may be 22 million metric tons in the year starting October, the smallest since 2002, said Concepcion Calpe, a senior economist at the United Nations’ agency.

“We’re still maintaining our relatively downbeat forecast for rice production,” she said in a phone interview from Rome.

Falling supplies may drive the price of Thai 100 percent grade-B white rice, the benchmark for Asia, to $500 a ton by the end of the year, Banjong Tungjitwattanakun, vice president of the Thai Rice Mills Association said last week. The price has risen from a two-year low of $469 on June 9 as a strengthening local currency makes exports expensive.

Rough-rice futures have tumbled 32 percent this year on the Chicago Board of Trade. September-delivery futures declined 1.2 percent to $10.09 per 100 pounds at 12 p.m. Singapore time.

 

Information & Communications Technology

Thaicom ready to negotiate and can afford new satellite, Bangkok Post, July 9

Thaicom Plc is ready to negotiate with the government over any alleged breach of its satellite concession and agree to arbitration if negotiations fail to reach a settlement, CEO Arak Chonlatanon said yesterday.

Mr Arak also said the company had sufficient funds to launch a new satellite if ordered, although he maintains the iPSTAR broadband satellite was a valid replacement for Thaicom 3, which was deorbited in 2006 after a power failure.

He said the launch of iPSTAR was approved at all stages by government agencies and the cabinet.

The Supreme Court, in its ruling last February in the asset seizure case against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, said iPSTAR was not a valid replacement because it served overseas customers rather than domestic ones.

The high court reached the conclusion in its examination of alleged abuse of power in securing changes favourable to companies founded by Thaksin, including Thaicom.

The committee subsequently set up to review the Thaicom concession had identified three points: $6.7 million in compensation for the deorbited Thaicom 3 was used to lease foreign satellite transponders instead of being remitted to the government; iPSTAR was not a replacement for Thaicom 3; and the Thai shareholding in Shin Corp had fallen from 51% to 41%.

However, Mr Arak said the company had not yet received any formal notification of any breach.

In any case, he said, iPSTAR was more efficient and would deliver more benefits to the government than Thaicom 3.

He said that if the government wanted the company to return the $6.7 million used to lease foreign transponders, then it should also return the corresponding revenue share the company had paid.

He also said Shin Corp would continue to hold 40% in Thaicom and the latter's board would be all Thais except for a foreigner who advised on marketing.

 

Politics

Emergency decree extended three months, New York Times, July 7

Declaring that many parts of   Thailand   remain unstable, the government on Tuesday extended by three months a state of emergency that gives authorities broad powers to restrict political meetings and detain suspects without charge.

Critics, including the tourism industry, denounced the move. Some called it part of a crackdown on dissent at a time when Thailand appears to have returned to a largely peaceful pace following months of protests in Bangkok led by the so-called red-shirt antigovernment movement.

“There are still some groups of people trying to eliminate the government,” Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said. A government committee charged with security had found that “terrorist situations were occurring in many areas nationwide all the time,” Mr. Suthep was quoted as saying in the Thai media.

He did not elaborate, but government officials have pointed to recent failed attacks on fuel storage facilities and a homemade bomb detonated in front of the house of a key member of the ruling coalition as proof that the emergency decree remains necessary.

The government’s order on Tuesday lifts the state of emergency in five provinces but retains it for three months in 19 others, or about a quarter of the country, including Bangkok.

The government first declared the state of emergency in April because of street demonstrations that escalated into clashes between the country’s military and the red-shirt protesters, who were demanding greater political participation for the lower rungs of Thai society. Nearly 90 people were killed and 1,800 were injured during the protests, which culminated in a military crackdown and acts of arson and rioting in late May that, taken together, were the worst urban violence in Thailand’s recent history.

Recent attempts at national reconciliation by Prime Minister   Abhisit Vejjajiva  have been rejected by the leaders of the red-shirt movement, many of whom the government describes as “terrorists.”

Chalerm Yubamrung, a member of Parliament for the opposition Puea Thai party, which is linked to the red shirts, said the extension of the emergency decree was politically motivated. “It obviously reflects the fact that the government is trying to do anything to prolong their time in power,” he said.

The emergency regulations allow the government to silence any media outlet that it considers a threat to national security. This includes local radio stations and a television channel that helped rally the red-shirt protesters and spread their message of double standards for rich and poor.

In recent days, red-shirt leaders have urged followers to avoid gathering and to generally remain quiet.

Nearly all foreign governments have lifted their travel warnings for Thailand, but the state of emergency could deter some tourists from coming. Tourism-related businesses, which were hit hard by the crisis, have lobbied to rescind the emergency laws, partly because they may void some forms of travel insurance purchased by tourists.

Thailand is “the same place that it’s always been,” said William E. Heinecke, head of the Minor Group, a hotel and fast-food conglomerate that lost $3 million in canceled reservations during the violence.

“I think you have a greater chance of being mugged in France than anywhere in Thailand,” Mr. Heinecke said in a recent interview.

Thai PM says monarchy, army should stay out of politics, AFP, July 8

Thailand's prime minister said the nation's powerful military and its revered monarchy should stay removed from politics as the country moves on from its worst civil unrest in decades.

Both institutions have played active roles in the turbulent politics of the kingdom, which was rocked by two months of anti-government "Red Shirt" protests in Bangkok that turned deadly, ending with an army crackdown in May.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, accused by critics of being a "puppet" for an unelected Thai elite and the army after he came to power in 2008 with military backing, stressed his political independence during the recent crisis.

He said the army, which has staged 18 attempted or actual coups since 1932 -- most recently in 2006 when the Reds' hero Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted as premier -- should play a lesser role in ensuring stability in the future.

"When at the moment we have to rely on the military when there are protests, when there is unrest, I would hope that in future that the police would be equipped to do this kind of thing," he said in an AFP interview at Government House.

"I hope that the military will continue to respect the constitution and the parliamentary system... and that it would only obey orders from the government that are in accordance with the law."

The British-born, Oxford-educated head of the establishment Democrat Party said Thailand's wounds had "not yet" healed from the 2006 putsch that removed Thaksin.

He also brushed off rumours in recent months that the military had been ready to launch another coup if the government could not end the protests.

"The fact that it didn't happen despite some people talking and perhaps expecting it to happen, shows that so many people and maybe all sides are quite determined to avoid one," the 45-year-old said.

The Red Shirts accuse Abhisit's government of being elitist and undemocratic, after he came to power in a parliamentary vote rather than through a popular mandate, following protests by the royalist "Yellow Shirts".

Ninety people were killed and nearly 1,900 were injured in violence triggered by the Reds' recent rallies seeking immediate elections.

Abhisit, who does not have to go to the polls until the end of next year, had proposed during the protests to hold November elections in a bid to end the tense standoff, but now says a vote is unlikely until 2011.

During the unrest, protest leaders called for the intervention of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest reigning monarch. He is currently in hospital and has made no explicit public comment on the situation.

Though he has no official political role, the 82-year-old king has been a stabilising force in Thailand, effectively bringing violence to an end in a 1992 uprising by admonishing military and protest leaders in a live television broadcast.

Abhisit said the government's position "had always been that the monarchy should remain above partisan politics" and he denied speculation that the palace had sought to influence his administration during the recent crisis.

"I can definitely say, categorically, that all the decisions during the protests were taken by the government. The palace does not interfere in the matter," he said.

"The institution plays the same role as in other constitutional monarchies."

But Thailand's monarchy is probably more protected than any other in the world and it remains one of the most sensitive subjects in the kingdom.

Rights groups and academics are concerned about the increasing use in recent years of Thailand's strict lese majeste legislation, which criminalises any insult or defamation of the royal family, punishable by up to 15 years in jail.

Abhisit said a new advisory board set up by the government in December would set a framework for people to better understand their rights of freedom of expression surrounding the monarchy.

"The problem I think has been because there is so much reverence on the part of the people of Thailand for the monarchy," so police and others feel under pressure when complaints are lodged under the legislation, he said.

"We have to make a distinction between people who make comments on the monarchy, maybe academic discussions, from people who clearly show intent in terms of undermining the institution, which would be a threat to national security," he added.

Key By-Election Bangkok, Bangkok Pundit, July 9

In a few weeks time, Bangkok will hold an important by-election to replace the late Democrat MP Thewa Ngernyuang. The election is likely to serve as a local referendum on the military crackdown and fires that engulfed Bangkok in May. The Democrat Party is the early frontrunner based on results from the 2007 election, though it’s certainly not a lock.

 The upcoming contest is for constituency 6, covering Nong Jauk, Khlong Samwa, Kanayao, and Bueng Kum districts. In the 2001 and 2005 elections these districts were separate single-member constituencies, as per the 1997 Constitution. In 2007, the new Constitution combined the districts into one multi-member constituency. Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party swept the constituencies in 2001 and 2005, while in 2007 the Democrats took the top two spots, with Thaksin-backed People’s Power Party (now Puea Thai) finishing third (see results below).

 In this election, Puea Thai’s Korkaew Pikulthongpit will face off against Democrat Party candidate Panit Vikitsreth. The PAD yellow shirts had earlier planned to run General Kittisak Ratprasert under the New Politics Party, but he has since withdrawn. Kittisak’s departure is probably a sign the PAD and Democrats don’t want to split the vote, as this would benefit Puea Thai in what’s expected to be a close race.

 Puea Thai’s Korkaew, also a UDD leader, is currently being held in Bangkok Remand Prison on terrorism charges relating from the red shirt’s May protest. He will likely remain in jail for the duration of the contest. Whether this helps or hinders his campaign is debatable. Korkaew’s campaign financing capabilities are also in question. After the May protest and crackdown, authorities either froze or placed heavy restrictions on his bank account, along with 83 other suspected red shirts. Korkaew has since opened a new account through a Bangkok Bank representative at the jail, while his lawyer says he will request that CRES lift restrictions on his assets.*

 The Democrat’s candidate Panit is a former Bangkok Metropolitan Authority deputy governor, having served from 2004 to 2008. He recently resigned his post as deputy foreign minister to run in the election. He is not considered a “superstar” candidate nor has he previously run in the constituency. In fact, both parties have deferred putting up big name candidates in order to pre-empt any major loss of face should their candidate lose.

The Democrat Party, again, is the odds on favorite, having finished at the top of the pack in 2007.  According to   Matichon Weekly, “The Democrats have the advantage because, in addition to being the party in power, they still hold power in Bangkok.” In the 2007 general election, 27 of the city’s 36 seats went to the Democrat Party. Other important advantages noted by   Matichon  include: continuation of the emergency decree, government control of Korkaew’s money, and ubiquitous government-run media showing the “reds burn the country” story, while not mentioning the deaths of 90 people during the military crackdown.

One factor not mentioned by   Matichon, but worth considering, is the vote-base of   Thanakan Damrongrat . Thanakan is the younger brother of former Deputy Finance Minister and Puea Pandin Party member Pruttichai Damrongrat. The Democrats   removed Pruttichai   in the recent cabinet reshuffle. Interestingly, Thanakan ran seventh as a Puea Pandin candidate in the 2007 election, garnering 18,705 votes. Will Puea Pandin voters, especially those behind Thanakan, vote Puea Thai to punish the Democrats for sacking Thanakan’s brother? If so, will it be enough to sway the election one way or the other? Of course this is just once scenario, and it’s equally plausible that voters from the coalition parties (Chart Thai, Bhum Jai Thai, etc.) could vote Democrat and moot out the Puea Pandin votes.

In the end, the election seems likely to boil down to the events of May. A Democrat win, with a similar margin of victory as in 2007 (plus coalition votes), will indicate that neither side has been moved politically by the May turmoil. A Democrat loss, however, will signal public disapproval of the crackdown and the government’s reconciliation plan. It would be an unmitigated disaster to say the least. For Puea Thai, a loss by a substantial margin will serve as a strong rebuke to its May protest. It will also throw into question its control over its remaining Bangkok seats and those in nearby provinces for the next election. 

A victory in Washington, The Nation, July 3

US resolution is a vote of confidence in the govt's roadmap, and a setback for Thaksin

The Abhisit government looked quietly content yesterday, and that was just about all it could show. A US House of Representatives resolution that was overwhelmingly in favour of the Thai prime minister's reconciliation roadmap was a diplomatic victory against   Thaksin   Shinawatra, but an unrestrained demonstration of jubilation could come back to haunt the Thai leaders later.

The government need not look further than   Noppadon Pattama to learn a lesson in how overconfidence could turn disastrous in international diplomacy.

Noppadon, a close aide of Thaksin, arrived in Washington a few days ago announcing his big lobbying ambitions and thus turned the Thai media's attention toward the upcoming resolution. If only he had known that the vote would be a staggering 411-4 in support of peaceful means to resolve the Thai conflict and, more significantly, Abhisit Vejjajiva's reconciliation plan.

The resolution unequivocally backs the roadmap, which the   red shirts   declined to accept before the stand-off with the Thai government turned bloody with murky violent incidents each side has blamed on the other. It was also a snub for Thaksin, who has always said he preferred direct "peace talks" with neutral foreign mediators to Abhisit's plan.

Round one in the diplomatic face-off, therefore, goes to the Thai government. As   Noppadon   and other   Thaksin lobbyists headed off to their next destinations that reportedly include Europe, taking a foreign resolution seriously is not a wise strategy.

Abhisit, Deputy Prime Minister   Suthep Thaugsuban   and some other government leaders cautiously welcomed the American politicians' move, but all stopped short of portraying it as a strong endorsement of the roadmap's legitimacy.

"It's always my belief that most foreign governments and organisations see the steps being taken by the government as a possible solution to the crisis," Abhisit said.

"In the case of certain organisations, we still have to keep on trying to make them understand. As for   Thaksin   and people working for him, they surely will also keep on trying and we will not try to stop them."

Having given Washington much importance,   Noppadon   and   Thaksin   must have found themselves tongue-tied. Thaksin, for instance, cannot say that the US "is not our father" as doing so would torpedo his own international campaign against the Thai government. The best he could do now is hope Europe would not be as accommodating towards the Bangkok administration.

Chavalit calls for national unity government, Monsters and Critics, July 3

A former prime minister called Saturday for the establishment of a national government to bridge the deep divisions that triggered violent upheaval in April and May.

Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, chairman of the opposition Puea Thai Party, said only a broad-based government   could solve the nation's problems.

'The best way to solve the current problems is to form a national government including all sides,' he told a party meeting.

He suggested that such a   government   could bring about national harmony within 18 months, followed by fresh elections, he said.

Street battles between security forces and anti-government protestors who support fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra left 90 people dead and 1,885 injured between April 10 and May 19.

Economic   losses, including the torching of dozens of Bangkok businesses, were estimated at 200 billion baht (6.25 billion dollars).

Thaksin, who was overthrown in a coup in 2006 and fled the country to escape a jail sentence for corruption, phoned in to the Puea Thai Party meeting on Friday and predicted he would be back in Thailand by the end of this year.

It was Thaksin's first public call to the party, which is widely regarded as his proxy, since the anti-government demonstrations in central Bangkok were crushed by the army on May 19.

New leader elected for yellow-shirts, Bernama, July 3

Somsak Kosaisuk, a top leader of the so-called 'Yellow Shirt' People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) was elected Saturday as new leader of the New Politics Party (NPSP) in time to contest the general election, which scheduled to be held next year, according to Thai News Agency on Saturday.

Somsak was elected leader of the party, which was formed last October, succeeding Sondhi Limthongkul, who resigned on May 14 citing that he wishes to devote his time entirely to his Thai-language daily newspaper The Manager, as well as to PAD activities.

He collected 929 votes during an extraordinary meeting of NPSP as five other contestants in the race withdrew their candidacies. Seventy-one abstained from voting while 44 ballots were invalid.

Suriyasai Katasila remained NPSP secretary-general, while Samran Rodphet became deputy party leader and acting party spokesman. Both were also previously core leaders of the PAD.

Twenty-five executive committee members were also elected.

Other

Thailand’s tourism sector begins to recover, Bernama, July 6

Thailand's tourism sector has begun to recover with the number of foreign tourists set to increase to 15.5 million next year, earning the country around Bt600 billion (US$18.51 billion) in 2011, according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Governor Suraphon Svetsreni on Tuesday.

Citing Suraphon, Thai News Agency reported that TAT projects the domestic tourism sector to have 91 million trips with a revenue of Bt432 billion (US$13.27 million).

The tourism agency met last week to work out marketing plan for 2011 and sought opinions of the private sector on the tourism situation.

However, Chairman of the Federation of Tourism Industry of Thailand (FTIT) Kongkrish Hirunyakit said the number of foreign tourists targetted by TAT at 15.5 million is too small.

He projected the foreign arrivals would reach 16 million, earning the country at least Bt600 billion, on the assumption that Thailand's political situation is stable.

Kongkrish said the number of foreign tourists began to increase in June as Asian tourists remain key targets because economies in the region began to pick up.

END MEMO

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