IMF Assessment of Cambodia’s 2026 Growth Forecast Flags Scam Activities, Real Estate, and Energy Risks—Further Impacts on Tourism, Exports, and Investments
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its Article IV Consultation for Cambodia on September 28, most notably projecting the country’s economic growth to slow significantly from 5.3% in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026. While noting the country’s resilience, the Fund expects growth to be constrained by higher energy costs, weaker tourism and remittance inflows, slowing garment exports, subdued domestic demand, and tighter financial conditions. Growth is projected to recover to 4.0% in 2027, although inflation is expected to remain elevated at 5.6% in 2026 before moderating as energy prices normalize.
In its Executive Board Assessment, the IMF warned that energy market volatility, supply chain disruptions, climate shocks, and potential El Niño-related disruptions could fuel inflation and weaken economic activity. The Fund also highlighted risks stemming from sanctions imposed by foreign partners, which have exposed Cambodia to heightened scrutiny by foreign correspondent banks, lower deposits, and declining tourist arrivals. Together with trade policy uncertainty, persistent scam activities, the possibility of a sharper real estate correction, and ongoing border tensions with Thailand that have dampened tourism and remittance inflows, these factors could weigh on growth and financial stability. To address these risks, the IMF recommended enhanced scrutiny of bank directors, shareholders, senior managers, and beneficial owners, alongside stronger non-performing loan resolution, improved provisioning and capital planning, and tighter oversight of real estate and large-borrower exposures. The Fund also emphasized attracting higher-quality foreign direct investment, strengthening domestic investment and workforce skills, improving governance and regulatory predictability, and investing in energy security and climate resilience.
For member companies, the IMF’s recommendations reiterate a Q4 2026 and broad Q1 2027 outlook across the country’s financial climate and policy implications as Cambodia implements its US$1.24 billion crisis-response programme to support economic recovery. Opportunities for private-sector participation through public-private partnerships in workforce development and clean energy complement the IMF’s recommendations and may provide member companies with avenues to support the country’s reform agenda while pursuing commercial opportunities.
