State Elections: What we Know, Political Implications
On February 23, 2023, six out of 13 of Malaysia’s state chiefs reached a consensus on the sidelines of the Conference of Rulers meeting to dissolve their respective state assemblies over the last two weeks of June. Resultantly, the six states (Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu) are expected to have dissolved before the Hari Raya holidays on June 26, allowing the Election Commission (EC) to host simultaneous elections for the states by the end of July.
The state elections are critical in understanding the public’s reception of the Anwar Administration. Currently, the Prime Minister’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition is incumbent in Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, and Penang. Prime Minister Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) party leads Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, whilst the Democratic Action Party (DAP) leads Penang. Meanwhile, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), a portion of Perikatan Nasional (PN), leads Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu.
PH expects to maintain the three states it currently leads, whilst targeting Kedah. PN, on the other hand, is confident they will maintain rule over their current three states, whilst seeking gains in the PH states. During the 15th General Election, PN gained a majority of Malay votes, winning 74 parliamentary seats and making significant strides in the northern regions of Penang and Selangor. The Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, led by Anwar Ibrahim, won 82 seats, and the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition’s number of seats dropped from 70 seats to 30 seats.
Reactions to 2023 State Elections:
- Free Malaysia Today, State election results will determine support for unity govt, say analysts
- South China Morning Post, Malaysia’s Umno caught between rock and hard place as identity crisis grips ahead of state polls
- Free Malaysia Today, PAS’ ‘green wave’ will grow in state elections, says Hadi
- MalayMail, Takiyuddin says PAS state election candidates shortlisted, Annuar Musa wants to be considered as last choice
- The Straits Times, Former Malaysian PM Mahathir claims he is ‘too old’ and ‘senile’ to contest in upcoming state polls
- The Star, The Chinese Dilemma
Key Political Parties, Officials:
Pakatan Harapan (PH)
Pakatan Harapan (PH) was founded in September 2015 due to disagreements between PAS and DAP regarding the implementation of sharia law. The disagreement led to the dissolution of Pakatan Rakyat, leading to the formation of PH, which consisted of former Pakatan Rakyat parties, PKR and DAP, and the National Trust Party. According to the APAC Head of Public Affairs and Polling at YouGov, PH performs well in urban parts of Malaysia. PH has roughly acquired 35% of votes this year, obtaining the largest share of votes.
PH had an unprecedented victory in GE14, winning a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat together with the Sabah Heritage Party (WARISAN), and securing 121 seats total. PH’s victory marked the first time in Malaysia’s history that the ruling party (UMNO) had been voted out of power, catalyzing a regime change across Malaysia. The party’s ideologies are majority social democracy, social liberalism, civic nationalism, reformism, and multiracialism.
In February 2020, the Sheraton Move, where a group of MPs changed party support, resulted in the fall of the PH government and resignation of PM Mahathir Mohamad, just 22 months after swearing into office. Malaysia’s government proceeded to face political instability from 2020-2021, ultimately ending with UMNO’s Vice President Ismail Sabri Yaakob being appointed Prime Minister.
Perikatan Nasional (PN)
Perikatan Nasional (PN) is composed of the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (BERSATU), Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), Homeland Solidarity Party (STAR), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), and Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (GERAKAN). PN typically performs best with rural electorates, due to center-right to right-wing ideologies. Currently, PN controls 73 seats in the Dewan Rakyat.
PN was formed in 2020 with the intention to replace the then-ruling PH government. Their aspirations were successful, replacing PH during the Sheraton Move with PM Muhyiddin Yassin. However, PM Muhyiddin resigned with his cabinet in August 2021, triggering several early state elections and ultimately, the 2022 snap general election.
The Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) has recently powered a conservative “green wave” amongst rural Malay voters. The wave came from states most damaged by flooding during the monsoon season, ultimately displacing UMNO and PH areas. Resultantly, PAS obtained the highest number of parliamentary seats, securing 49 out of 222 seats. Analysts believe PAS’s new popularity is due to their religious rhetoric as well as a result of the gradual decline of UMNO.
Mahathir Mohamad
Notably, former Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, age 97, will not be a candidate in the upcoming state elections after declaring himself “too old” to run. Mahathir has served as premier twice, from 1981 to 2003, and 2018 to 2020, resigning both times. In 2022, he lost his parliamentary seat of Langkawi in the 15th General Election. However, he has indicated that he is willing to work with PN for the state elections to secure the Malay votes.
