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March 3, 2026

From Treaty to Trainer Jets: Indonesia Advances Security Ties and Airpower Modernization

Australia–Indonesia “common security” treaty 2026
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, left, welcomes Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Merdeka Palace in Jakarta on 6 February 2026 (Bay Ismoyo/AFP via Getty Images) — https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/placebo-risk-australia-indonesia-common-security-treaty
March 3, 2026

Indonesia and Australia have officially signed a bilateral security treaty, announced by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto after meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Jakarta. The Treaty on Common Security reflects the strength of their relationship and a shared interest in regional stability. Under the agreement, the two governments commit to holding regular consultations at leader and ministerial levels on security matters and to collaborate on shared threats, though it does not create a binding mutual defense obligation or formal military alliance. 

While the treaty sounds ambitious, experts have raised concerns about a potential “placebo risk,” meaning it could be more symbolic than substantive. If the treaty fails totranslate words into concrete actions or mechanisms, it may be perceived as a diplomatic gesture rather than a robust security partnership. 

In another recent development, Indonesia selected the Italian Leonardo M‑346 jet as its next advanced trainer and light combat aircraft, moving forward with plans to modernize its air force and replace aging BAE Hawk trainers. The Indonesian Ministry of Defence signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) with Leonardo and PT ESystem Solutions during the Singapore Airshow 2026 to supply and support the M‑346 F Block 20, which is intended to meet pilot training and operational needs. 

Indonesia had previously planned to buy F‑15EX fighter jets from Boeing under a 2023 memorandum of understanding for up to 36 aircraft, but the deal did not materialize. Talks stalled, reportedly in part because the proposed price was too high, and the Indonesian government never formalized the purchase. Boeing has confirmed it is no longer actively pursuing the sale. The LoI for the M‑346 now sets the stage for more detailed negotiations toward a procurement contract. 

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